India’s economy continues its rapid expansion, leading to soaring demand for thermal coal. Despite strengthening domestic output, India relies on imports roughly 15% of its coal needs to fill quality and logistical gaps In 2023, about 180 million tonnes of thermal coal were imported, up from 165.4 MT in 2022.

South African thermal coal, particularly at Richards Bay, stands out for its competitive prices and favorable specifications - 5500 and 4800 kcal/kg NAR grades are especially popular. Steam boiler-equipped independent power plants and sponge iron manufacturers in India prefer it.

Trade Volume Surge & Shifts:
• Nov–Dec 2023 slump in spot prices (~$94/t, down ~27%) triggered a spike in South African shipments: +74% YoY to 4.7 MT.
• Between January–May 2025, non-coking exports from South Africa climbed ~30% YoY to 28.66 MT, with India accounting for 3.71 MT in May alone (+58% YoY.)
• Over Apr–May 2025, Indian imports from South Africa soared ~71% YoY to 4.26 MT in May.
• In 2024, over 25.8 MT of South African coal went to India, a key component of Asia-bound exports.

Infrastructure & Logistics: A Closer Look
Transnet’s rail services from mines to Richards Bay have improved notably. In 2024, RBCT handled 52.08 MT, up 10% from 2023, enabling increased throughput to Asia especially India, which received ~25.8 MT. That reliability supports India’s growing reliance on South African coal.

Pricing Pressures & Market Sentiment:
• Despite strong volumes, portside prices in India have softened: RB2 declined from INR 8,800/t to INR 8,300/t (Gangavaram) by May 2025.
• BigMint notes weak demand and ample stockpiles are keeping South African coal prices under pressure.
• Indian buyers actively compare it with alternatives Indonesia, Russia, Australia—but South African coal often wins on cost and calorific value.